2007 NRMP Match Trick Survey Results

This has been long past due, but since we still have rumors on the ability of the so-called 'NRMP match trick' in predicting the match result, here's to show how the survey data looked I had passed it along after the 2007 residency match:

# of Candidates that Got logged out = 154

Of these,

Accepted Prematch = 2
Did Not Match : ROL Not Submitted = 5
Did Not Match : ROL Submitted = 52
Matched : Prelim / Trans = 12
Matched : Categorical = 83


# of Candidates Not Logged out = 14

Of these,

Accepted Prematch = 1
Did Not Match : ROL Not Submitted = 1
Did Not Match : ROL Submitted = 3
Matched : Prelim = 4
Matched : Categorical = 5


Thus, we had both matched and unmatched guys who got logged out, and we also had some matched and unmatched guys who did not get logged out.

Now, there is no gap for 'probability' here - either the match trick was true or false, nothing like saying 60% chance of not matching etc,. etc. - and given the fact that the unmatched were less likely to be enthusiastic to respond to the survey, as far as my beliefs are concerned, a logged out or not-logged out result had no consistent relation to actual match result.

So......This pretty much rests in peace the existence of any NRMP match trick - i.e. there is nothing to it !


Apparently things seem to have changed on the system for the 2008 match - with no one getting logged out anymore. Anyone out there who getting 'logged out' after clicking the Unfilled Programs links while waiting for the 2008 Match results ? Or are ya'll too chicken to try ;-) he he he